How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August produced little tangible outcome.

The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.

The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally decided on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Lori Miranda
Lori Miranda

Elara is a seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in reviewing online casinos and betting strategies.